So the inaugural joke for this blog was pretty bad, but I figure if you start bad you can only get better, right? Anyway, I started this blog on the advice of one Evan Casper-Futterman. I’m not sure if anyone’s actually going to be interested in what I have to say here, but I was motivated over the past couple of months to get what I’m thinking down in writing. For instance, I’m going to call the results of the NH primary now… you can all judge how I did tomorrow morning. Hopefully I’m spot-on, but who knows. More importantly, I hope that my justification for the ranking is interesting to you and is informed more broadly by my thoughts for the general trajectory of the primary process.
Now on to the actual post:
By this point in the day, a win by Barack Obama and John McCain in New Hampshire is the general consensus of the punditry. I think that’s pretty accurate, but the finesse on this point will be the important element to the campaign.
First, Obama will win big due to huge turnout among independents. I’m putting his margin between 8-13% over the next ranked Hillary Clinton, who will in turn beat John Edwards (by about 9%), with Bill Richardson (at ~7%), Kucinich (at ~4%) and Gravel (~0.5%). This is going to be a very bad night for Clinton; Edwards will look scrappy but hapless; and Richardson will continue on trolling for a VP slot.
The Republicans will be more interesting tonight. John McCain will look stronger than he’s looked since 2006 because he still has a lot of friends in NH and a good base just due to his longevity in the party. He’s going to win tonight, but not by a ton. I’d say 4-5% margin. Romney will get hit, but the media will probably overplay this loss. I still think Romney is going to be the eventual Republican nominee. If Mitt can come in within the 4-5% margin I was talking about or even win this state, I think he’ll gain the “front-runner” mantle and be able to put the screws to McCain and Giuliani. After McCain and Romney, the order will be Huckabee, Giuliani, Paul and Thompson. If Paul beats Giuliani, watch out for a dangerous 3rd Party run! (There was some late-breaking news about Paul today though… I don’t think it will affect his NH showing, but it could be VERY damaging among the liberal intelligensia that seem to have an incomprehensible hard-on for his candidacy.)
Well, I think that’s about all I have to say about tonight. I’m going to a party with a bunch of folks out at my friends’ place in Brookland, DC. It should prove to be a night of much revelry and yelling at hilariously backwards reporting by our nations great TV reporters. (I heart NPR)
PS – IF Huckabee does better than I think (about 10-15%) in NH, hold your breath. He’s going to be very difficult for any of the other candidates to stop, including whoever the Dem Nominee is. (I think it’ll be Obama, but more on this later.)
